Mike Bell’s Blog – Real Estate and Bank Owned Properties in Silicon Valley

The Federal Reserve Board controls the Federal Reserve system: an elaborate depository chain which guarantees the value of money, determines the cost of money, and controls the flow of money.  Natural economy is based on supply and demand of goods and services.  Contrarily, the American economy is based on the supply and demand of money, controlled entirely by the FED.  Basically, the FED, a private organization; autonomous and accountable to no one, controls and manipulates the American economy.

Why?  Profit.  Private profit.  As long as money is moving, or changing hands, bankers make a profit. When the money stops moving, they get busy and reverse the flow.  The money starts moving the other way, and the FED still makes a profit.

This sequence is known as inflation.  Inflation is not natural, rather it is a result of manipulation.  There was no real, sustained inflation in US history until the FED was established in the early 20^th century, but it has been out of control ever since.

Inflation, deflation, it doesn’t matter, as long as the money keeps moving.  That’s the whole point of the Federal Reserve System. Our government doesn’t determine economic policy; it only reacts to it.

To review our earlier post from July 09, the FED loans money to the Federal Government, at an interest rate that the FED controls, paid by your income tax.  This is a debt that will never be paid. You, the taxpayer are hopelessly trapped.  The government keeps borrowing more money, and the national debt just spreads out and expands, and the dollar grows ever weaker.

The Federal Reserve can print money when they need it, simply declare to it have value, then charge interest on it, and it works because we believe them.  It’s basically endorsed counterfeiting.

The Federal Reserve is the faceless puppet master behind the default crisis.   Now they have maneuvered themselves into control of some of the larger private banks, too. More on that later, in the meantime, keep an eye on your credit card statements and read them carefully.

For more information about the history of US Banking and the Federal Reserve, check out this informative website: End the FED!

What is it with real estate agents who don’t return phone calls, reply to email, or respond to inquiries?  It’s like an epidemic, especially with REO or short sale agents.  Look, we all know you’re busy, but how about a little common courtesy? You’re giving us all a bad rap.

If I leave you a voice mail, have someone call me back, for crying out loud. How difficult is that?  If you’re so busy that you can’t handle the volume of calls, you can afford to hire a staff to do it for you.  If not, you should change your outgoing message from: “Your call is very important to us,” to: “Sorry you called.  We’re too busy to acknowledge you, so don’t leave a message because we won’t call you back.”

I’d guess you don’t ignore your REO clients, asset managers or short sale negotiators.  You wouldn’t leave them in voice jail; you probably respond immediately.  Why should buyer agents be treated any differently?

Buyers and their agents have a right to expect a timely response to inquiries, and especially to offers.  Maybe it’s just a simple question about the availability or status of a listing, whether it’s worth the time and effort to draw up an offer.  Maybe I just want to know if you actually received my offer.  I don’t know how many offers I’ve submitted which were never even acknowledged, even after numerous calls and email.  Eventually I discover the pending sale on the MLS.  That’s more than discourteous; it’s a professional slap-in-the-face.

We have more communication devices than ever before. It should be easier than ever to respond to each other.  We’re so connected that it’s nearly impossible to disengage.  So, why can’t you call me back? Or send a text?  Or something?  Isn’t that what your blackberry or iPhone is for?

Imagine if your doctor suspected you had a brain tumor, but after a series of tests he didn’t return your calls.  Would that cause you some anxiety?

Buyers are in a battle zone right now, getting beat up by multiple offers, and buyer agents are getting worn out.  Give ‘em a break and show a little courtesy. Call them back.  That’s the least you can do.

Being an REO broker, I know how busy the phones and email can get.  Still, I believe that we have a professional obligation to be as responsive and timely as possible.  If you call my office during regular business hours you should get a response within 60 minutes; if after hours, by the next business day.  If not, please email me directly.

Until recently, it’s been nearly impossible to make a short sale work (at least in Silicon Valley), but that’s about to change.  Your chances of success are improving.

The first thing you need is a professional advocate, an experienced negotiator with an impressive track record of successful short sales.  Of course you have to do your homework before selecting an advocate, because there are a lot of imposters and scams lurking.  But with all the resources on the internet, you can do all the research you need.

We recommend hiring an experienced attorney who specializes in short sales and loan modifications.  They have established relationships with the banks, can negotiate favorable terms, speed up the process and keep your costs down.  It’s a lot more affordable than you think. Obviously, if you’re in this situation you don’t have a lot of money.  A good short sale attorney knows that, and will be willing to put a little of their own skin in the game.  Again, do your homework.  You can find a seasoned pro that will keep your fee reasonable and negotiate the rest of their compensation directly from the bank.

Lenders are looking for ways to cut their losses, and a short sale is much less costly than foreclosure.  Still, they have simply been unable to process the overwhelming amount of short sale applications in a timely enough manner.

However, indications are that there is a massive effort by lenders to reorganize and hire more staff to better expedite short sale processing.  If this works (rather, when this works), there will be a lot more timely and successful short sales, and significantly fewer foreclosures.

Again, do your homework, but get an advocate.

A response to the recent WSJ Blog: Are Banks Holding a Shadow Inventory of Homes?

We don’t believe it.  Shadow Inventory, yes.  Banks holding back, not likely.  Basic market research, and our own experience as an REO brokerage tell us otherwise.

Let’s start with the series of foreclosure moratoriums between October ’08 and April ‘09.  First, major lenders and GSE’s stopped filing notices of default, then the federal government mandated it.  REO processing basically came to a halt for 6 months.  Standing inventory that was previously stagnant started to sell off quickly.  Agents used to complain about REO inventory; now we started complaining and speculating about the lack of it.  Multiple offers, buyer competition, number of listings down, number of sales up.  The market shifted for a moment and we all started theorizing: were these signs of a market recovery, were the banks holding back, etc.?

In April the wheel started to turn again as mortgage companies resumed foreclosure activity (see WSJ: Banks Ramp Up Foreclosures), hence the spike in notices of default.  The notices of trustee’s sale won’t follow for another 3-6 months.  We can’t compare these data in real time; we need to account for lag.

REO is a long process, and requires momentum.  You can’t grind to a halt and expect to restart at full speed.  It will take time to get the inventory to market: 5- 9 months to the trustee’s sale (foreclosure), another 2 to 12 months before the occupants vacate and the bank can take possession, and another month to trash out, clean up, etc.  A current notice of default might not become an REO listing for 18 months or more.  Inventory that was in process during the moratorium season is only now coming to market, and slowly.

One of our most reliable forecasting indicators is the amount of BPO activity, which mostly escapes attention.  Lenders order BPO to get a first glimpse of a property value and evaluate market strategy.  When BPO activity increases, REO activity increases.  Not coincidentally, our BPO activity was slow during the moratoriums, but has increased dramatically in the last 45 days.  We believe that there is a lot of REO inventory in process, and it will make it to market in due time.

In Silicon Valley, the current foreclosure cycle has been waxing and waning for over 24 months.  Our client lenders have been continuously adjusting, however slowly, to better accommodate the overwhelming volume of defaults.  They are increasing staff and focusing their resources on cutting loses through more efficient default servicing, and more successful loan mods and short sales.  In our opinion and from our perspective, deliberately holding back inventory so as to manipulate values would be counter-productive to cutting loses.

Lenders make loans.  They need to make a lot of loans to recover some of their enormous losses.  You can’t make loans on Shadow Inventory.

What Is The FED?, Part One.

When we think of “The Feds” we think of the federal government, like the guys who busted John Dillinger and Bonnie & Clyde.  So when we hear the term “the FED,” aka The Federal Reserve, it sounds like some government agency.  But that’s just a clever disguise.

The Federal Reserve Board is a private organization.  It’s like a private Central Bank that loans money to the federal government, then charge interest on it. The government borrows the principal; the American people pay the interest.  That’s why we pay income tax: interest payments on the federal debt, paid to the Federal Reserve.  It’s a trap that we can never escape.

But the government doesn’t repay the principal; they just borrow more.  Meanwhile, the interest keeps compounding, and the Federal Reserve Board can adjust the rate whenever they want, without notice.  Did we mention compound interest?

This deal is rigged, sort of like an interest-only, monthly adjustable, reverse amortized loan, built to fail.  The American economy is like a home loan in default.  The government is the landlord and the taxpayers are the tenants. The landlord owes more than the house is worth and is using the tenants’ rent to try to make the interest-only payments, but is falling behind.

Sound familiar?  If this was a home loan, it would trigger a notice of default, followed by a trustee’s sale and foreclosure.  The tenants would get locked out by the sheriff, quite to their surprise (just paid their rent) and would have no place to go.  The landlord would be nowhere to be found, having fled with the rent.

Is the government in foreclosure?  Maybe they’re asking the FED for a loan mod.  Maybe they’re just walking off with the rent.

Seems like they’re dropping out of site.  It’s almost epidemic, as if there is some new infection that’s wiping them all out.  This is a trend that we’ve noticed for some time, as early as 2005, long before the HVCC, the collapse of WAMU, or the current default crisis.  Maybe the best appraisers started intuiting the current mess while it was brewing and just decided to pack it up.

Appraisers have, by far, the most stringent licensing and continuing education requirements in the real estate industry.  If real estate or loan agents had to obtain half of the experience and education that appraisers do, we’d likely have 80% fewer licensees.  That might no be such a bad thing.  It would sure raise the standard of practice.  Imagine a real estate or loan agent having to log hundreds of hours of experience, supervised by a broker, before qualifying to take the license exam.  Appraiser candidates will now also be required to have a college degree or equivalent.  How many wannabe agents would give up, get out, or not even bother?  You’d have to really be dedicated, just like an appraiser.

You can’t get rich being an appraiser either, at least not any more.  The cost of doing business is foreboding and growing each year:  multiple association fees, redundant data source subscriptions, MLS fees, heavy E&O policies, 96 hrs continuing education every 2 years, etc.  At the same time, compensation is diminishing every year.

Since the mid-80′s or so, a standard residential appraisal report would cost a consumer about $350, usually paid directly to the appraiser at the time of inspection.  Since the mid-2000′s, twenty years later, the same report can cost the consumer between $450 and $600, paid to a third-party appraisal management company.  Of this, the appraiser gets paid about half, maybe $250, sometimes a lot less.  Hmmm . . . let’s see:  consumer cost up, compensation down, more expenses, less pay, more liability . . . no wonder appraisers are vanishing.  Oh, did we mention more liability?

Certainly there are players in every facet of the housing industry that contributed to the current crisis, and there have been some shady appraisal outfits, but the appraisal industry has unfairly fallen victim to the great blame game.  Appraisers are subject to more intense scrutiny, litigation, restrictions and regulations than ever before.  Banks have forsaken them, reduced their fees, or mostly passed them off to the management companies mentioned above.  It’s not like appraisers were the ones lying about their income on the loan applications, or writing ridiculously overpriced purchase offers, or convincing buyers that they could afford a home loan with 90% of their monthly income and still get enough cash back to buy a new Escalade.

This year, at a time when property valuations are critical to the housing recovery, we’ve seen a lot of sub-standard appraisal reports, almost all of them performed by unlicensed apprentices, and their inexperience is obvious.  Reports are full of inconsistencies, errors and contradictions.  The result is that more good purchase contracts are failing.  Of course, apprentice reports are supposed to reviewed by, and their work supervised and signed-off by a licensed appraiser, but the quality control is lacking.  It’s the equivalent of having real estate agents writing contracts or unlicensed loan agents writing loans without the required supervision of a broker.  Of course, that never happens, right?

Government intervention, although well intentioned is just making the situation worse, as it usually does, but that rant is better saved for another time.  You certainly can’t blame appraisers for hanging up their spurs.  I think I would, too.  I know of a number of very qualified, experienced appraisers that have done just that.  I miss them.  I miss the quality of their work.  The whole economy misses them, too.  We’ve got a long road to recovery if we keep dumbing down the industry.

OK, so let’s say you are a first-time home buyer and home prices have finally reached a place where you can afford to buy.  You’ve got some money for a down payment, and you’ve been pre-qualified for a home loan.  Maybe you’ve even made offers on short sales that seem to go nowhere, and you’re getting frustrated waiting for something to happen.  You’ve found a foreclosure that you like.  Sure it needs a little work, but it’s in your price range and you’re not afraid of a little sweat equity.  After all you’re pretty handy with a hammer and a paint brush.

Here’s the challenge: bank owned properties typically need repair, but the seller (bank) wants an a-is offer and will neither make the repairs or pay for them.  Meanwhile, your lender (also a bank, maybe also the seller) will likely require repairs before they will make the loan.  Seems kind of self-defeating, and it is by conventional methods.

You can’t afford the repairs because you’re using all your savings for the down payment.  So what do you do?

Build the repairs into your offer.  Ask your lender or Realtor for a list of typical items that the lender will require, then go and perform a thorough visual inspection of the property.  Estimate the amount you’ll need and add it into your offer price, then ask the seller to credit you for repairs.  You have to keep it reasonable, though, say within 3-5% of the offered price.  Most bank sellers will entertain this kind of offer, and it can even work for FHA and VA loans.

The point is to ask for these concessions up front.  Once you have presented your offer, it will be nearly impossible to ask for additional concessions.  The easier you make it for the seller, the more likely they are to agree.

VA loans are just as likely to succeed with REO as any other conventional loan, they just take a bit more work and preparation.  They can also be competitive, but the competition is fierce for well-priced homes.  That may change some over the next few months, since we expect the available inventory to increase.  Since February the national foreclosure moratorium clogged things up, but that’s started to loosen.  So, patience and persistence will pay off.  Hang in there.

With a VA loan, try to get a termite report in advance.  The idea is to structure your offer to allow some buyer money to pay for repairs.  If you know what the cost will be, you can ask the seller for a specific credit for VA required repairs in your offer, say in lieu of a credit for closing costs, then add the amount to your offer price.  Most REO sellers will consider this an attractive offset.  If you include the report and the Section I estimate, it would be a compelling offer.  Sometimes the listing agent will have a report already, if not call in some favors and get your own.  Of course this could get spendy if you have to do it over and again.  Keep an extra watch for listings that are seasoned for 60 days or more because there will be less competition, but your VA offer should stand well among multiple offers.  Seller will almost always ask multiples for a ‘final highest and best’ counter offer, so you might get a second shot at the price.

There’s a lot of buzz about loan modification, a process where borrower and lender renegotiate the terms of a home loan so that the monthly payments are lowered.  Either the interest rate is reduced, or the repayment term is lengthened, or both.

The federal government, that is, both the administration and Congress, seem to think loan modifications are key to correcting the home loan mess.  We disagree.

In fact, our opinion is that in general, loan modification only adds to the problem.  We read recently where something like 3 out of 4 modified loans re-default within 6 months.  6 months!  What are the numbers after 12 months?  Basically, loan modifications are just extending bad debt further.  This is exaggerating the problem, not solving it.  Still, individual borrowers may get some short-term relief from a loan mod.

But be careful!  We’ve heard some horrible stories about people who still lost their home to foreclosure after paying lots of front money to “professionals” who offered to negotiate a loan mod.  They take your money, do nothing, and then they stop answering the phone.

Always interview more than one lender, ask a lot of questions, and don’t pay anything up front.

If you owe more than your house is worth and are having trouble keeping up with your payments, this is our first recommendation.

Very simply put, a Deed In Lieu of Foreclosure gives the property back to your lender, who forgives the debt, and you walk away mostly intact.  You suffer far less damage to your credit and the lender suffers fewer losses than with either a short sale or a foreclosure.

If the circumstances allow it, this is door #1.  Ask your lender about it, they should be very helpful in determining if this will work for you.  After all, they’re plenty motivated to cut their losses, which are already substantial.